Discussion in 'IntroSpectrum' started by Radium, Sep 25, 2012.
The Gray Tsunami | Aging | DISCOVER Magazine
what do you guys think is going to happen to us
We will reduce our population to a manageable number, we don't need to make jobs, just wait a few decades and the unemployment rate drops too! More food, its the solution to our problems, we should've been limiting births to 1 for a long time, seriously, in 1900 there was a billion people worldwide, 1930, 2 billion, 1960, 3 billion, 1990, 5 billion, 2000, 6 billion, now over 7! We've septupled our population in 200 years, whereas it took 2000 years to septuple before that! We're a culture quickly running out of substrate, stuck in our little petri dish of a planet
World Population Growth History Chart
so the moral is kill more kids
Not kill them, just stop making so many of them, or even better... take and freeze eggs and sperm from everyone, then sterilize everyone, then everytime 2 people die, they test tube generate 1, and destroy those 2 people's remaining sperm and eggs, new world order unite!
people all fear the new world order and think the government is out to get them but ive surmised that its quite possibly just the way things need to go to try to maintain order and organization within an ever rising population thats already in the overpopulated zone.
i use the club example.
a 2 man club needs almost no rules, 4 man, maybe you make 1 or 2, but then you go to 30 man club, now you need some real set rules to keep everything consistent, jump to 1000 now you need more different ways to control and facilitate the programs and rules set, jump to 100 000 000 members now you need all types of different layers of management and rules to help it all flow efficiently.... etc etc... its just the way it has to work with our system
birth rules or better edumacation or something may be in order... it doesnt seem like were going to be able to sustain thing much longer... but that being said, there should be a time limit on that. At some point it would have to expire
lol @ antinatalism
hg wells has a book called a short history of the world where he reviews major events in human history and he has a part in it about the industrial revolution that i thought was really interesting
58. The Industrial Revolution. Wells, H.G. 1922. A Short History of the World
thus as machinery replaces men the economy should increasingly shrink as men start to lack more and more work to more and more machines. and so i thought that a capitalist society may naturally grow and mature into phases of growth and death just like a human body and that we would see this as three main phases: 1 pre industrial society (ruralized agrarianism and artisanship) 2 industrial society (urbanized mass production and increasing mechanization) and lastly its final and ultimate phase 3 post industrial society
as we're just now entering what i think is this new, final and ultimate phase of capitalist society, its hard to know what things its fully characterized by, but there is one very striking feature to it, and that is a new graying of humanity. this is completely new and has never happened previously in human history.
i think that in any pre industrial society fertility rate is always generally greater not primarily by want but by necessity. human life is so hard and brutal in any pre industrial society that this the only way for that society to ever truly exist. that is in pre industrial society fertility rate is used as a necessary work around to things like shorter life expectancy and higher mortality rates.
in industrial society this fertility rate work around loses its validity, as newer and greater technology can more adequately block these kinds of damaging events thus freeing man from its necessity. and as society is now urbanized vs ruralized, ability to access goods and life enhancing systems shifts from having to produce most of these things on your own, to purchasing these things from a mechanized super producer that has an ability to produce in greater quality and in greater quantity.
but there is one constraint to this and it is that to purchase these goods men must have money, and thus men must have an ability to work to generate it. so long as men have that they can continue to access more and more goods and more and more life enhancing systems. but as machinery replaces more and more men his ability to work would naturally shrink and thus so too would his ability to access goods and life enhancing systems. thus a very firm cap is placed on his ability to access many things as machinery starts to push man increasingly out into a new and uncertain post industrial state. one of these things is fertility. and i argue that man cant return back to what were his regular fertility rates so long as that cap is there. there is only one thing that i can think of that can remove it: even greater technology (technology that can create access to goods and life enhancing systems instantly)
at the door step of our end game the question then is when can that technology exist, and can it even ever truly exist. who should want to create it, and who should want to block it
anyway i had realized that we probably are now likely entering into a new gray period of human history and that we are now the new gray men. this would change everything about what we thought society ever was. what do you guys think this new gray society would look like
It will be the downfall of entertainment as a job, focus will go toward machining agriculture to feed the people too hungry to smile at celebrities, the greed driven higher ups will be forced to give up their egregious collection of others' needs or the workforce will collectively go back to lawless natural life of hunter gatherers, billions will die due to lack of skills and the meek will inherit the earth
re: entertainment as a job
i thought that too. i thought that in a gray society we would begin to see some very huge changes culturally and that we may not have things like major league sports in that kind of society.
there is a kind of weird economist named thorstein veblen who created the theory of conspicuous consumption and had some extremely interesting thoughts about society. these are his views on sports
Thorstein Veblen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Theory of the Leisure Class: X
he thought that sports were really just a vestigial artifact of a past barbaric period in human history and that men use sports just as a way to experience and demonstrate this barbaric urge or predatory temperament. i realized that this urge to destroy is very dear to men and that they try to do as many things as they can to fully have it. thus i realized that a very big part of our society is arranged to harbor and entertain this trait.
xenophanes was someone who had some of these same thoughts as veblen about sports and he may have even hated sports more than veblen. xenophanes was an old man, a gray man. he may have had created these kinds of thoughts about sports because of that. that is, it was mostly just his aging body that was forcibly reducing his barbaric urge more than any other thing was. testosterone raises sharply in boys from about 13 and 16 then peaks at 25 and 30 and then begins to decrease very gradually. i think that by age 75 and 80 men have an equal amount of testosterone in their body as 10 year old boys. that is they really begin to return to a kind of post sexual, pre pubescent state.
thus this would have very interesting implications on a society of gray men; a society of men like xenophanes. would this new gray society have an equal barbaric urge or predatory temperament as our society today? would this society have any major league sports? what kinds of entertainment in general would this society have?
i think an important country to really look at is japan as they currently have a more advanced rate of graying than any country.
japan really began to show these marks of graying in the early part of 2000. i think for two main reasons: 1 the lost decade and 2 the rise of the internet
Lost Decade (Japan) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
one thing that this had caused me to realize about economic recessions is that they are tremendously effective at blocking population growth in an industrial society. i thought this was an extremely interesting effect. you may infer some interesting things about that
anyway i found a chart demonstrating this effect in america too. its seems to strongly produce a kind of hard cap on fertility rates
U.S. birth rate keeps falling since recession first began - Aug. 16, 2011
i think that industrial society tends to ask a very stern question to its members during economic recessions and that is should you try to save yourself, or should you try to save your children. that is economic recessions are very king solomon like agents that force future parents to choose between self prosperity or self sacrifice.
thus i thought that the internet, the ultimate technology of pleasure, was probably now starting to have a very big hand in this very harsh choice. members of industrial society can use internet to induce experiences of instant ecstasy, instant sexuality, and instant social affirmation. that is in many ways it had truly softened a need to have things like family, and probably even friends.
i think the new gray men, are ultimately men of internet too.
this made me think that the new gray society may be a kind of lonely society at its core that uses many different kinds of pleasure technology to sweeten the harsh severity of lacking things like family; an existentialist society of many honeyed pains.
what do you think about that point?
you made some more really interesting points but i have to think about those things some more
I think that a gray majority culture would be unsustainable, be a bunch of oldies having hoveround jousting matches, really though, I found that sports/predatory nature/destruction stuff quite accurate, sports used to be a display of attributes related to hunting and simulated war training, a showing of who is most skilled at, well, destroying and conquering things. Modern men need this release of natural aggression in a positive manner, whether competetive or not, I myself.find sports and the glamour and expenses to be ridiculous, even when I was a kid, the days of sandlots baseball or field football, with two full teams was rare, so I focused on solitary sports, got into skating where it was competition with myself, being inspired by others who were doing the same, if I saw something do something better or that I couldn't, it was awesome, and something to try to accomplish myself, not to be equal or better than them, but to be better than myself, like sharing knowledge among.scholars, but, I was destroying curbs, handrails, and the cartilage of my hips and knees, it all does come back to destruction, we gotta tear something apart to make something else, from trees for houses, the ground for mineral ore... the ore for structural components, to the dead plants and animals to make and sustain more
yeah i think that spending in society would increasingly shrink as it grays, and thus i thought that alternate ways to access goods/life enhancing systems would really have to exist, as our present way to do it increasingly sheds its validity
here are 2011 us spending habits by age
i think a good way to look at this data is by splitting it in three distinct blocks
[block 1: <25] vs [block 2: 25-34, 35-44, 55-64] vs [block 3: >65, 65-74, >75]
spending is generally always lowest in block 1, then peaks at block 2, and then begins to increasingly lower again in block 3, or valley, hill, valley
there are just a few things where this isnt true eg healthcare (valley, valley, hill) education (hill, valley, valley) and utilities, fuels, and public services (valley, hill, hill)
here are 2011 us spending habits by consumser unit
the interesting thing to look at is that spending by husband/wife parent consumer units are generally always overwhelmingly greater than non parent and single parent consumer units w non parent single persons having the lowest spending consistently
the greatest spending in the us is by middle aged, husband/wife parents hence its key to look for any expansion or contraction by this block
here are some us population pyramids and projections
Population Projections - Population Pyramids
by 2050 we should start to see some more increasing expansion by block 3 and some hard contraction by block 2 thus we should see corresponding contractions in block 2 spending thats even further enhanced by ever decreasing birth rates or marriage rates of that society, which are significant indicators of greater spending that exists in block 2
Marriage Rate In America Drops Drastically
thus in short, a grayer, increasingly marriage-less, increasingly non parent society.
so for example most entertainment spending is by block 2 thus contraction by block 2 would cause huge contractive or transformative changes in what kinds of entertainment society has eg less disney/pixar movies, less movie theater and major league sports attendance, very dramatic change in tv programming content and advertisement strategies
what kinds of ideology, religiosity and political beliefs do you think they might have?
Separate names with a comma.