lets talk numbers for tomorrows game, Broncos vs Ravens

Discussion in 'Audio Emcee Hook Ups' started by Dely, Sep 4, 2013.

  1. Dely

    Dely In The Trap

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    a couple of years ago i came up with a formula for determining yards a team will get vs said defense. its basically analytics. analytics has been around for awhile but football is just now catching onto it

    the way i crunch my numbers was based on the yardage offense and defense had already given up that season. so for me to try to do it for the first game of the season, i had to base it off last year numbers plus keep in mind the additions each team made in the offseason.

    most analytic departments aren't really football guys, they are just number guys, so it would be a little tougher for them to come up with accurate numbers. they would just crunch the numbers and not take into account the personnel, because in their world, numbers dont lie. but me following football i know that sometimes they do, so i tend to adjust my numbers accordingly


    anyhow, based on the game tomorrow

    Broncos Passing Yardage: 332
    Broncos Rushing Yardage: 130


    for the broncos i took into account that obviously peyton will be passing about 45-50 times against a pretty good pass defense but the addition of welker underneath will help free up thomas and welker on the outsides. They will be employing a rb by drive and will run a lot of stretch plays against a revamped ravens front 7 and will see minimal running room


    Ravens Passing Yardage: 246
    Ravens Rushing Yardage: 159


    with them losing boldin and pitta it really hurts the passing game but torrey smith absolutely destroyed champ in the playoffs and champ is 50/50 on even playing tomorrow. with no von miller and dumervil playing for the ravens now, the pass rush should be very very minimal. i expect a lot of underneath passes to ray rice and a very run heavy game plan with him and benard pierce and actually see them running for more than the 159 yards my analytics gave me.


    sorry if this is a bit long
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  2. Cluster-One

    Cluster-One Active Member

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    now that Joe has a ring and can sit at the big boy table, he'll ham on em

    Torrey Smith >

    Ravens 21
    Broncos 20
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  3. warbux

    warbux Robber Dinero

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    Peyton will not throw 40 passes

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  4. J o o k

    J o o k Win your battles before they’ve even been fought.

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    my analytics saying broncos pass for 384 and rush for 102 :eek:
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  5. Dely

    Dely In The Trap

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    he averaged 36 attempts per game last year .. with the way these backs been running, he could very well throw 40+
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  6. warbux

    warbux Robber Dinero

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    Broncos pass protection is suspect and ravens pass rush should be formidable, while their run defense has looked porous in the preseason without Ray barking out the calls.

    I see a run heavy game plan for both teams. Denver to keep Peyton off his ass and Baltimore to give Flacco some time to build chemistry with his receivers.

    Bet on the ravens who have dominated in week 1 games under Harbaugh/Flacco (winning all 5 with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points) and the under.

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  7. FiZiKs

    FiZiKs MileHighSalute

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    Good read, we obviously are having struggles on the o line and pass rush, but I don't think it effects our ability to keep the td's to a minimum or peyton making his short throws.

    Worried about our turnovers tbh, but I think if we don't make as many mistakes as last time we got em by a td
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  8. double ML

    double ML plekz = wannabe thought police

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    the broncos will fucking embarrass the ravens.

    baltimore's defense is now a joke, and outside of ray rice, nobody on their offense is worth mention.
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  9. Dely

    Dely In The Trap

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    i actually thought daryl smith at mlb has been pretty dope for yall. webb will be back and will cover the slot in 3wr sets and jimmy smith will kick it outside

    ngata back at NT with dumervil and suggs bookending should very will stop the run.
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  10. warbux

    warbux Robber Dinero

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    Baltimore's defense will be far better than last year. They've made significant improvements athletically at every position. Webb, who is quickly becoming one of the top cover corners in the league, is back and healthy. Suggs is healthy. Ngata is healthy and back at his real position. It'd be a safer argument to suggest that Baltimore will have the best defense in the league than that they will finish worse than they did last year.

    Torrey Smith has been improving every week he's been in the NFL. The losses of Boldin and Pitta will be tangible in the early weeks, but the loss of Cam Cameron's Tecmo Super Bowl playbook should more than make up for them. Flacco is rich as fuck.

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  11. double ML

    double ML plekz = wannabe thought police

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    i don't think the ravens will make the playoffs bux.
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  12. warbux

    warbux Robber Dinero

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    Willing to make a wager to that effect?

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  13. double ML

    double ML plekz = wannabe thought police

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    $100? :ganikcheesin::h20sosohappy::sotechnical::Fantasia::foxy-laughing::sabrina-scream::alliknowisthat:
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  14. J o o k

    J o o k Win your battles before they’ve even been fought.

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    add a 0 to that.
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  15. double ML

    double ML plekz = wannabe thought police

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    bux ain't won the GRB yet :eekcat2:
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  16. yayo

    yayo Polar Bear LaFlare

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    @Dely

    in my other league

    t smith vs. denver
    or
    ty hilton vs. oakland

    im leaning towards t smith for the simple fact they going to need him to beat manning if especially manning makes it a high scoring game. rice isnt going to keep up with manning touchdowns, they are going to launch the rock to smith for deep passes.

    ty hilton at oakland is fantasy dream, will be too easy for him, so easy tho they may not need him too much. shouldnt be a close game, i wonder if hilton will benefit that or hinder his performance.
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  17. Dely

    Dely In The Trap

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    colts are running a 2 TE system and they are running with DHB because of his blocking ability, TY will only play in 3 wide sets. the upside is there but i would wait to see what his snap count is like

    i would roll with torrey definitely
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  18. yayo

    yayo Polar Bear LaFlare

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    thanks my dude
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  19. utmost1

    utmost1 Well-Known Member

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    dely who should I put money on tomorrow? broncos?
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  20. Dely

    Dely In The Trap

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    bro i dont know lol

    im only speaking on yardage
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